Afghanistan’s Past, Present, and Future


Afghanistan is at the “cross-roads of Asia.” It was a flash point where the Persian, Indian and Chinese empires and civilizations clashed and blended. The British and Russian empires whittled away large swathes of land from Afghanistan. Later, the Cold War and the resulting world polarization oddly affected Afghanistan because of the enduring rivalry between Pakistan and India.

 

The Saur Revolution (April 28,1978) empowered a cadre of idealistic and secular Afghans who wanted radical social change. The new communist state clashed with traditional elites and emerging Islamists.  The Soviets intervened to save the regime.

 

Post-communist Afghanistan succumbed to its classic shatter zone environment. New external ideas and external powers introduced drivers of conflict that called for culture change and challenged traditional religious beliefs. The fall of the Taliban regime (2001) allowed the world to force Afghan factions into an agreement (the Bonn agreement) that promised to make the country whole and healthy again.

 

Afghanistan’s 20 year experiment with its western crafted and financed democracy has ended. The Taliban have replaced the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) with their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA). There is peace, but the country is now plagued by the presence of ISKP.  Will the Afghans be able to resolve their differences and compromise on a new government that is inclusive of all Afghans? Will the country remain an Afghan Shatter Zone, fractured and disunited?

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Past

The “Greater Afghan Shatter Zone” began as an integral part of the area called Khurasan during the early Islamic period. It comprised Sasanian Khurasan [present day Eastern Iran], Sistan (Indo-Khurasan), Tukharistan [Northern Afghanistan] and Ma Wara’ al-Nahr [Transoxiana, Sogdia and much of Central Asia]. These regions in turn were isolated by deserts, mountains and sometimes rivers.

 

Afghanistan has been dubbed the “Graveyard of Empires,” but it is more aptly, an Afghan Shatter Zone. It is not where civilizations, empires and modern states die but rather where they clash. Empire builders and in modern times, powerful nations established overlapping spheres of influence across this region that created conflict and enduring rivalries and geographic, ethnic, economic, linguistic, religious and political fragmentation. The Afghan Shatter Zone remains continually affected by internal discord and external interlopers.

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Present (2001 – 2021)

Afghanistan’s first president, Hamid Karzai maximized the government’s lack of checks and balances. Karzai locked horns with his westerner benefactors and protectors and at the end of an eight year stretch as the President of Afghanistan left a government suffering from disunity and an insurgency.

 

In 2014, power was peacefully transferred to Ashraf Ghani. However, his victory was contested by Abdullah Abdullah. The U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry brokered a deal, the National Unity Government that forced both Ghani and Abdullah to bargain and barter over who would fill key government positions. Increased gridlock hamstrung the presidency, while the Taliban quickly advanced their hold on large areas of Afghanistan.

 

The U.S. and NATO remain in the country without a real strategy. The Trump administration negotiated a peace agreement with the Taliban and forced GIRoA to accept it. With the final withdrawal of all American troops, the Afghan government fell within days.

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Future

The U.S., the international community and NATO funneled billions of dollars into Afghanistan to help it rehabilitate itself. Internal events, corruption, a lack of checks and balances and a myriad of political problems caused the Afghan people to lose confidence in their leaders and government.  With the collapse of Afghanistan’s government, the Taliban now fill Afghanistan’s political void. The country’s foreign assets are frozen. The economy has almost collapsed and the world is withholding recognition of the Taliban’s transitional government.

 

The only thing certain for Afghanistan is uncertainty. 3.5 million Afghans have been displaced by fighting. There is a drought. Half of the population (22.8 million) faces acute food insecurity. More than 3 million children are in danger of acute malnutrition.  The Taliban remain divided internally. Government positions have been divided up among the Taliban factions.

 

However, there is hope for Afghanistan. For the first time in 40 years, Afghanistan is at peace. The incessant fighting has stopped. The Taliban will eventually come to the reality that they must make compromises in order to be able to rule and that any future government in Afghanistan must be inclusive.  As the Persian proverb goes, “Shab abistan ast.” (Time is pregnant.) and we do not know what will be.

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