Can the Taliban Protect the People?
Mark Luce • January 16, 2022
Luce Dispatch #5
Can the Taliban Protect the People?
December 14, 2021
Afghans and the outside world fret for the fate of former Afghan officials, soldiers, and those who worked with the U.S. and its western allies. Many are in hiding and fearful for their lives moving from safe house to safe house. They are desperate to escape from Afghanistan.
Although the Taliban declared an amnesty for all, revenge killings have proliferated in four provinces. Reports claim that more than 100 former police and intelligence officials have been disappeared or executed. With the collapse of the Ghani regime, the disjointed factionalized Taliban groups have settled scores independent of the Taliban’s high command. Empowered and unfettered regional Taliban factions enforce their brand of rule. Land disputes are being settled by the victors, who are grabbing land from Hazaras, and other minorities.
To right wrongs committed by their ranks, the Taliban’s central leadership has created the “Clearing of the Ranks Commission,” which has to date expelled close to 700 members for a variety of crimes. Additionally, Taliban leaders have been reaching out to the Hazara community for their support and have promised more protection. It remains to be seen if the Taliban central leadership will be able to assert itself and remove regional commanders opposed to new directives or quell anti-Shi’ite sentiment.
ISKP (the Islamic State Khurasan Province, IS-K or Da’esh) has taken full advantage of the chaos created by the regime change. Stepping up political assassinations and bombings, they target the Shi’ite minority and ambush Taliban patrols. Prior to the fall of the Ghani government, ISKP was primarily concentrated in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces with cells embedded in Kabul. Reports indicate that ISKP has spread to every Afghan province and rumors abound that former government intelligence officers have joined their ranks.
So, can the Taliban provide adequate protection for Afghans? Will they protect the Hazara Shi’ites? Can they wipe out ISKP and end terror attacks? Sirajuddin Haqqani in April in anticipation of a Taliban victory warned that the Taliban needed to prepare to end their jihad and to move toward a civilian government.
However, the Taliban remain militarized, numbering only 70,000. They are stretched thin. They have spoken of building an army modeled after the one that they defeated and have begun rebuilding the Afghan Air Force now that many of their airplanes flown into exile by Afghan Air Force pilots have been returned. Dreams of a demilitarized Taliban are far from becoming a reality. As for an army, that too will never materialize until the Taliban themselves can unite under one command, and by extension, an all-inclusive government can never be realized until the Taliban come together.
The Taliban have dispatched 1,300 fighters to Nangarhar to fight ISKP, but their tactics of rounding up suspected ISKP members and executing them without benefit of a trial is upsetting the Nangarharis and making the Taliban enemies. Suspects are hung in public or beheaded. Throughout Afghanistan, the Taliban can only station small forces of between 20 and 30 to each district. Security-wise, this leaves the country extremely vulnerable.
More threatening is the humanitarian and economic crisis that is raging. The Taliban remain unable to provide food, shelter, salaries, or protection for their population. The non-Taliban continue to be disenfranchised from any government participation and women have been excluded from any role in government. Civil servants and technocrats are being ousted from such vital government ministries as agriculture and replaced by Taliban commanders. Under such conditions, no government can expect to function, much less claim legitimacy.
The clock is ticking. What would it mean for the Taliban, if they bowed to outside demands to create an inclusive government? One as been promised, but presently the Taliban’s central leadership is in no position to create one. The only way for the Taliban to remain in power is to continue their current path by rewarding their commanders with government positions for which they have no qualifications. By doing this, the Taliban cannot protect or provide for their fellow Afghans. They can only protect themselves.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-envoy-says-islamic-state-now-appears-present-all-afghan-provinces-2021-11 17/?utm_source=iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=3226629_
https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-revenge-killings/31475124.html
https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/afghan-prosecutors-targeted/31471145.html
https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/25/afghanistan-surge-islamic-st…211025.rank&utm_source=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=campaign#
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/afghanistan-review-november-20-december-8-2021
https://afghannews.org/shia-mosque-bombing-kills-dozens-in-afghan-city-of-kunduz-afghanistan/
https://www.eurasia.ro/2021/09/26/ramping-up-operations-against-apostate-taliban-militia-islamic-state-khorasan-province-iskp-claims-two-more-attacks-in-afghanistans-nangarhar-kunar-expands-operations-in-pakistan/
http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13681-afghan-hazaras-organize-to-defend-themselves.html
https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-pledge-to-probe-alleged-summary-killings-of-ex-afghan-forces/6340449.html
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/brutally-ineffective-how-the-taliban-are-failing-in-their-new-role-as-counter-insurgents/
https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-evictions-uzbeks-turkmen/31601904.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/asia/un-alarm-afghanistan-killings-intl/index.html?utm_source=iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=3381702_
Luce Dispatch #1 Afghanistan’s Cultural Heritage August 18, 2021 Gil Stein, the Director of the University of Chicago’s Oriental Institute (OI) announced the end of 9 years of operations helping to preserve Afghanistan’s cultural heritage. The OI worked in partnership with the National Museum of Afghanistan (NMA or Kabul Museum) and the Afghanistan Institute of Archaeology (AIA) on four long-term projects. Because the security situation in Afghanistan was deteriorating rapidly, the “OI Kabul House” closed on July 31 st and the OI applied for “Special Immigrant Visas” (SIV) for all their Afghan staff and families (approximately 65). They also sponsored “P-2” applications for the staff of the NMA and AIA. During the OI’s 9 years of partnership, it created a digital inventory of the holdings of the National Museum of Afghanistan. The inventory documented and photographed more than 146,000 pieces. So, should any harm come to the collection, the information and images will survive. The OI Afghan Heritage Mapping Partnership has documented over 25,000 significant sites by searching satellite images of Afghanistan to discover archaeological heritage sites. This project allowed the sites to be monitored so that looting can be reported, and protection advocated for. The Hadda Sculptural Project partially re-assembled 432 rare Early Buddhist Sculptures smashed by the Taliban in 2001. The Mobile Museum project successfully taught Afghan high school students around the country about the history of civilizations in Afghanistan and the importance of the National Museum. The cultural heritage of Afghanistan fared badly under the Taliban government of the 1990s. While the Taliban profess that they have turned over a new leaf, it is certain that Afghanistan’s pre-Islamic heritage will not be a Taliban priority. Only time will tell if Afghanistan’s national treasures will survive the Taliban or whether they meet the same fate as the standing Buddhas of Bamiyan or whether they will be sold off. It is a shame that now the keepers of Afghanistan’s heritage are mostly in exile.
Luce Dispatch #2 Working as an Interpreter at Fort Dix, NJ Dear All, I have just returned home after spending two weeks as an interpreter for IRC (International Rescue Committee) at one of the military bases hosting the Afghans (They are referred to as guests.). I was one of 34 interpreters. Only two of us were not native speakers. Among the interpreters, I met so many amazing Afghan Americans (male and female) dedicated and committed to what they were doing. I met Uzbeks and Hazaras as well as Pashtuns and Tajiks. The majority had fled Afghanistan between 2014 – 2016 and had been naturalized. In my cohort three or four of them had worked with American Special Forces. There were also second-generation Afghan Americans who had never been to Afghanistan but had grown up in Dari/Pashtu speaking homes. Among the “guests” I met doctors, engineers, administrators, etc. from every corner of Afghanistan, but I also met lots or teenagers and young adults, uneducated villagers, soldiers from Khost, non-Dari speakers, Isma’ilis and gay Afghans. IRC was the main lead agency. They were doing the best that they could with the hand that they had been dealt. The volunteers were great, but with most making a 2-week commitment this led to dramatic turnovers when suddenly 30 of them left. There had been a critical shortage of interpreters. When my group of 14 arrived, we filled the shortfall and then suddenly new refugee flights were stopped. Outbreaks of measles and chicken pox among the population in Europe and the Gulf caused flights to be halted while the outbreaks were contained, and MMR shots administered. The hiatus in flights created a glut of interpreters but while IRC waited for its ranks of volunteers to be replenished, the interpreters stepped in and filled the void as best as possible. I stepped up as an interpreter when there was a critical need. Now, with many Afghan Americans applying for the positions, I felt that young energetic native speakers should replace me. I want to go back but I want to do something that utilizes my rarer talents. The whole experience for everyone is emotionally and physically draining. As interpreters, we were constantly on the front lines – in-processing – setting up appointments for families – and trying to organize different activities for children, women, and adult males. All of us were under a lot of stress from our interactions with families and individuals. I was able to help start up English conversation classes for adult males. Starting from scratch, without resources or without any announcements, a couple of us just went into buildings and asked people to bring their male family members or friends who had no English to our class. In two weeks, we were able to establish core classes for kids, women, and men in one of the 3 “villages” on the base. The tricky bit is reaching those who know no English and to expand services to other villages. So many challenges and unknowns hamper efforts. There is a lot of work to do to get the camps organized. It will take a long time for things to get settled. We do not know how long it will take for people to complete the whole process. There are so many different circumstances among our Afghan guests. They are not all SIV applicants with a clear path to citizenship. There is no certainty for many that they will be accepted for resettlement. more later……. Best, Mark
Luce Dispatch #3 Sources of Evacuee Stress I spent the last two weeks working as an interpreter for IRC with the newly arrived Afghan refugees at Fort Dix, NJ. My experiences were moving and allowed me an opportunity to work with tens of wonderful, dedicated Afghan Americans. Before I left, I was asked to lead a discussion on sources of stress among the refugees A frank discussion with my fellow interpreters at Fort Dix, NJ allowed us to identify six factors as sources of stress for the Afghan evacuees. These include family left behind, the stress of being uprooted, the evacuation process, worries about the future, family issues and the loss of their wealth, property, and status. Family Left Behind Worries about immediate family members still in Afghanistan cause major concerns. They want to know if their family members are in danger. Are they well? They are also unsure of how or if they will be able to be reunited with their family members. They want to know how to start the application process for them. Concerns for the Future New situations, customs and hardships add stress to relationships and can all contribute to separation and divorce. Husbands worry that their wives in a new culture will have change and become upset by changes in clothes and lifestyles. People are worried about how they will earn a living to support their families. Will they have enough assistance. Will they be able to learn English? Will they be able to find a good job and be self-supporting? Will they be able to relocate near friends and family? Loss of Everything The loss of status, money, property, businesses, and security all weigh heavily on evacuees. Afghan doctors and other professionals will have to be recertified or retrained. Additionally, not all evacuees hold the same immigration status. Some held SIV visas, others with alternate status and others were applying for humanitarian parole. So, while all were safe in the U.S., for some it is only a temporary reprieve. Those granted humanitarian parole have only two years in which to be accepted. If the decision is unfavorable, they will have to leave the country. The task of welcoming and resettling tens of thousands of refugees is daunting. Resettlement agencies atrophied during the anti-immigrant policies of the past administration. The outpouring of help and cooperation has been impressive. Language and culture are barriers. All the above-mentioned stress factors will weigh heavily on our new guests as well as work to make new lives for themselves.
Luce Dispatch #4 The US – Taliban Impasse on Afghanistan’s Frozen Central Bank Assets After the Afghan government fell to the Taliban, the U.S. froze nearly $9.5 billion of Afghan assets belonging to Da Afghanistan Bank. Without access to these assets the current Taliban government in Kabul is unable to pay government employees. The money flow to Afghanistan has essentially stopped and put the country on the verge of economic collapse. In September, the U.S. Treasury Department issued two general licenses that allow the U.S. government, NGOs, the UN, and a limited number of other organizations to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. The freezing of assets is in line with Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations that specifically target the Taliban and/or the Haqqani Network. In January of 2018, the Treasury Department placed sanctions on 6 individuals whom they identified as financiers and facilitators for the Taliban and the Haqqani Network. In November, the Taliban wrote an open letter to the US Congress requesting the release of Afghan assets. It declared that the freeze was causing major economic and financial hardship for the Afghan people. Thomas West, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan, in response to the letter countered that the U.S. had made it clear to the Taliban that a military takeover in lieu of a negotiated peace agreement with the Afghan government would result in a cut in aid. West declared that for the U.S. to change its position and consider the Taliban government legitimate, the Taliban had to form a government that includes all Afghans, respects human rights, minorities, women, and girls. The U.S. this year provided Afghanistan with $474 million in assistance and has pledged to continue to provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan’s winter has arrived, and most of the population is in danger of starving. Given its current stand on Afghanistan, the U.S. needs to adopt new approaches for easing the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The different Taliban factions are currently too divided to decide on a new inclusive government. The factions are intent on maintaining their own visions for Afghanistan, which range from the ultra-conservative stereotypical Taliban of the 1990s to more progressive groups that have always approved of female education. Early this month (December), Hibatullah Akhundzadah, the spiritual leader of the Taliban’s proclaimed Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, issued a decree on women’s rights. The decree states that women must consent to marriage and cannot be pressured to marry. Additionally, it asserts that women are not property and may not be traded to settle debts or to settle feuds or to make peace. The decree also ensures women their rights to inheritance as guaranteed by shari’a law. Afghan women and western nations acknowledged this decree as a good start but in no way a move toward meeting western demands of a more inclusive government that would include women, minorities, and non-Taliban. Essentially, the Amir al-Mu’maneen, Hibatullah, has reenforced provisions of Afghan law that were instituted to stop harmful practices against women that were un-Islamic and harmful. Harmful practices perpetrated against women were not reserved to the Taliban but were pervasive throughout the rural hinterlands. As millions of Afghans hover on the verge of starvation and Afghanistan’s youngest generation suffers from massive malnutrition the withholding of Afghanistan’s frozen assets only aggravates an already impossible situation. How will the world help the Afghans, while maintaining their stranglehold on the country? https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/18/us-freezes-afghan-central-banks-assets-of-9-5bn https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-central-banks-10-billion-stash-not-all-within-reach-taliban-2021-08-17/ https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/treasury-makes-us-aid-to-afghanistan-easier-amid-taliban-sanctions.html https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/ct_gl14.pdf https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0265 https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-open-letter-appeals-to-us-congress-to-unfreeze-afghan-assets/6316688.html https://www.siasat.com/taliban-supreme-leader-issues-decree-safeguarding-womens-rights-2235206/
